Survey conducted by Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business finds continued economic growth
Despite signs of softening and global uncertainty, Grand Valley State University’s College of Business found May continued months of economic growth in West Michigan.
Recently, Grand Valley State University conducted a survey of manufacturers in West Michigan, and reported that May saw modest growth. This is the fourth month in a row of growth; however, the survey did show that the labor market is showing signs of softening, as well as declining consumer confidence. This is all contextualized alongside ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical sphere, which could alter economic momentum with little warning for an uncertain amount of time.
Brian Long serves as the director of supply management research at GVSU’s Seidman College of Business. He was quoted in an article posted on the school’s website about West Michigan’s industrial economy, saying, “The industrial economies at the local, national and international levels all appeared to be modestly solid. Much of the recent enthusiasm from the survey respondents is apparently predicated on the optimism that the Iran war could be over at any moment, resulting in the economy bouncing to meet the good news.”
The survey looked at the new orders index, which is a telling measure of business improvement in the region, and found that it did not change between April and May. It also found that the production index went down between April and May, but remained positive.
Long noted that the local measures of business confidence in West Michigan are still in the green, consumer confidence nationally is starting to go down, which he expects could affect businesses in the near future. He said, “At some point, consumer confidence will get low enough that it'll spill over into the industrial economy. At that time, businesses will start reassessing what the future looks like, and we are in more danger of having more and bigger layoffs.”
The state of Michigan recently reported a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but Long says he is not yet concerned about a recession happening any time soon.
“Our West Michigan employment index for May has now turned slightly negative, and the official unemployment numbers that we are getting out of Lansing are about 1% point or so higher than they were two years ago,” he said.
More information about Grand Valley State University can be found on the school's website.